Global Growth Remains Resilient, but Uneven
The global economy entered the second half of 2026 with continued growth, but also significant differences between regions and industries.
The International Monetary Fund’s July 2026 update projects global growth of 3.0% for 2026 and 3.4% for 2027. Technology investment is supporting some economies, while conflict, energy costs and weaker conditions are placing greater pressure on vulnerable and energy-importing countries.
The IMF also notes that global disinflation has stalled and that renewed conflict, repricing and geopolitical disruption remain important downside risks.
For insurers and reinsurers, slower or uneven growth can affect premium development, asset values, construction activity, credit quality and claims behaviour. Inflation remains particularly relevant because it can increase repair costs, replacement values, legal awards and the time required to settle complex claims.
Economic conditions may also affect policyholders’ maintenance spending, risk-management investment and ability to absorb deductibles or uninsured losses.
Underwriting in this environment requires current values, realistic inflation assumptions and careful assessment of counterparties and project economics.
The 2026 outlook does not point to one uniform global cycle. Instead, insurers and reinsurers must account for divergence between territories, sectors and individual businesses.
Economic resilience will increasingly depend on adaptability, pricing discipline and the ability to recognise where inflation, conflict or weaker growth may change the risk after inception.